2 Years On!
Stay In, Stay Safe, keep your distance! The people fighting on the front line of this terrible pandemic, deserve your respect and help!
To our clients, we want to say thanks for your support over the past 2 years. We started Minter in the belief that we had something unique to offer traders. We joined with the Saxo platform and created a team that we believed could provide personal service, with experienced colleagues to be high quality speaking partners. Like most startups, we had a rough start and went through a learning process. The team we are now is quite different from the one that started exactly two years ago. It may sound like a cliché, but the only reason we get to do what we do is if you, our clients, find value in the service and ideas we provide. We will in the months ahead be making some changes that we expect will enable us to provide a better service than we do today.
As I watch the markets open up in Asia, I am thinking about the seriousness and uncertainty of the pandemic and its consequences for those that are affected by this disease, the struggles of the front line health service and law enforcement personnel, as well as the enormous challenge that governments globally are facing to try and guide us through this unprecedented times.
At the same time we are witnessing a global monetary and fiscal intervention of the likes that have never been tried before. The commitment from around the world seems to be “whatever it takes, for as long as it takes”. This has many consequences in the short, medium and long term for society.
All of the above will have huge consequences for investors behavior, approach and preferences. We think at Minter the easy (in hindsight) trades are done.
- Sell airline stocks, travel related companies, restaurant chains, energy related companies etc.
- Buy food related companies, software and cloud related to people working at home, gaming companies etc.
Now it’s about finding the companies with good balance sheets (cash) that can do the right things and continue to function until this pandemic passes.
Find companies in the right sectors, with the right approach to capitalize on how consumers and manufactures will function come the next upturn.
I was sent the GIF below by an old friend this weekend, it shows the development of the U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (seasonally adjusted)
Going back to the 70’s. No comment needed!
(Hat Tip TM)
- The USD will continue up in the next few weeks, which will be painful for EM currencies.
- Equities will trade sideways to slide lower over the next week as the market waits for signs that the pandemic is coming under control in Europe and the U.S.
- Gold, we expect to trend higher in the weeks ahead.
- Oil we think will trade lower to start the week, but that should pressure the powers to be to cut, which we think will not be enough to provide much of a lift in prices over current levels.
- VIX index is encouraging in that it is sliding lower, but at 45 it is still signaling that the coast is far from clear.
Trades we like for the start of this week:
- Buying NOK vs SEK on dips, we suggest waiting until market opens in Europe on Monday and try at levels under .96 for test of 1.00 wrong below .95
- Buying USD vs EUR at 1.0800 level, looking for a test of 1.10, wrong if trades below 1.07
- Brent Crude we think trades lower, but after what we saw last week in terms of volatility, we stand on the sidelines for now.
- Gold, would look to add to longs above $1,620 or on dips to $1,585/90
- Equity markets we will wait for the European open before looking at trades.
As we have been saying, the current markets are like nothing we have ever seen in my years of trading since the 80’s.
Size positions accordingly (VIX at 45)!
Do your homework on what you want to own as we think there will be another 10% to 15% dip, but it might be wise to start looking at putting some of you cash to work in names you really like if you have a longer term investment horizon.
|Ticker||Date Opened||Entry Price||Stop||Target Price||Current Price||% Change|
|Long EURCHF Put Option, Strike 1.0650, Expiry 15.4.2020||2020/01/15||1.0757 (Ask 0.00620)||1.05680 (Bid 0.01341)||+1.76%|
Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record!
2018: 45 Trades, Hit Ratio 53,66%, Profit +35,87 %
2019: 31 Trades, Hit Ratio 45,16%, Profit +26,97%
– Mark W