77% Quarantine

According to Joyce Chang at JP Morgan Global research:

77% of China’s GDP is under quarantine

Approximately:  A 1% drop in Chinese GDP will have the consequence of lowering global GDP by .50%

JP Morgan expects growth to fall in China to under 5% in Q1.

Expects the Fed to ease in Q2.

Germany GDP pretty anemic.

We can be pretty sure that the global central banks that matter for the pricing of money and the level of liquidity n the market, are all expected to cut rates or leave rates unchanged for the rest of 2020.

Today from the U.S. we will get:

Retail Sales

Industrial Production

Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing production

Business Inventories

Michigan consumer expectations

None  of these individual releases are big market movers, but it will give us a view of how the U.S. economy started out in 2020.

Quick views:

Equities: skeptical that all of the recent developments have been priced in. 

Gold:  consolidating and we look for a breakout in the next 2 or 3 trading sessions.

FX: EURCHF lower, NOKSEK higher, USD remains firm.

Coffee, we have long position in portfolio of trades

Crude oil:  still look for a test of the $58 level on Brent.

EURUSD struggling on the back of political uncertainty, export exposure to China, negative rates….

We look for a test of the break lower.  Looks like sell on bounces.

Gold is consolidating and we think will break out soon.  Not sure short term which way, medium term we are positive.

Brent holding range and we look for a further bounce short term.

Contact us if you are interested in receiving real time trading signals. In doubt? Check out our track record below!

TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price% Change
Long EURCHF Put Option, Strike 1.0650, Expiry 15.4.20202020/01/151.0757 (Ask 0.00620)1.06420 (Bid 0.00695)+1.07%
Long EXXY:xetr (ETF)2020/02/0417.3716.9518.7517.56+1.09%
Long NY COFFEE March 2020 (CFD)2020/02/10100.0397.50110.00101.60+1.57%
Long Norwegian Air Shuttle, NAS:xosl (Stock/CFD)2020/02/1241.5035.0060.0041.50+0.00%

Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record! 
2018: 45 Trades, Hit Ratio 53,66%, Profit +35,87 %
2019:   31 Trades, Hit Ratio 45,16%, Profit +26,97%

– Mark W

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