Big Couple Of Days Ahead

Today we will get the following releases from the U.S.:

Factory Orders

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index:  August increased from 53.7 in July to 56.4 in August  55.3 is analyst expectations for September

Jobless claims

The first release will give us an idea of whether the weakness in the manufacturing side of the economy is stabilizing or if there is more weakness to come.  The ISM Non-Manufacturing (activity that does not involve making products) will shed some light on whether the most important part of the U.S. Economy is holding up, improving or weakening.  A steady or higher number will give the stock market comfort. A weaker than expected number will confirm the fears of a broad based slowing of the economy and will most likely push equities lower, while giving the Fed ammunition to cut at the next meeting.

Other things of note:

The Tariff war expands as the U.S. puts tariffs on European goods.

We are starting to think, that with the equity markets on shaky ground, an interim trade deal between China and the U.S. is quite possible in the next few weeks.

The strength of the USD will draw more and more attention from President Trump and his team.  Look for more focus in the weeks ahead.

The UK continues to weaken into Brexit deadline:

              Yesterday was biggest down day in equity market in several years

              New orders, output and employment continue to fall

Hong Kong retail sales were down 23%

Analysts continue to lower 2019 oil demand.


S&P holding a key support line. Tomorrow’s Employment report and market close will set the tone for the weeks ahead.

Gold has weathered a needed correction down to the $1460 level, trading $1500 currently. We look for higher prices into year end.

We have highlighted earlier that we keep an eye on the high yield market in the U.S. to give us warning signals about equities.

As you can hopefully see here the S&P 500 and the High Yield ETF we track have a tendency to move together.        

S&P 500 CFD in purple, iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Bond ETF in Green

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