Friday Quiz ( Read time: lots of pictures!)
The weekend is upon us and the fundamental news flow is pretty well documented. Given the back and forth of the Pandemic developments, economic uptick (from low levels in previous months), committed Central banks and governments, China / U.S. relationship struggles and a general uncertainty regarding the global politics, and especially the situation in the U.S.: we can see that the markets for the most part have been in a back an forth mode when it comes to equities, USD and the VIX. Oil has been impressive and rates seem to be off of most people’s radar.
Nasdaq: The crown jewel of all asset markets with its impressive performance driven by a handful of big movers:
Multiple Guess Quiz: Question #1
- Is it an inverted Head and shoulders? Which if the resistance at 10,130 level opens for a test of 10,200?
- Is it heavy resistance at the 10,130 that will hold and due to negative developments we see a test of 10,050 and the recent lows at 9,900?
- Why bother, just buy and close your eyes as the Fed has your back?
S&P 500: Question #2
Obviously very correlated with Mr. Nasdaq, but
- Will the range of 3,150 to 3.025 hold and best to just trade it back and forth for now?
- Will the 3,075 support be the key for a retest of the highs at 3,150 and then the old highs?
- Will the heavy news be too much for the less tech heavy index and will we work toward the key 2,850 support many are calling for?
- None of the above?
Brent Crude: Question #3
Having been on a tear since the 22nd of April, is it time for:
- Crude to take a break on it’s attack of the gap left behind at the $45 level?
- Will the destruction of demand, increased driving, due to avoidance of public transportation, drive Crude to and above $45?
- Will other key states similar to Texas, Florida and California, roll back re openings? New York? And Crude drops back to the mid $30 levels?
- 100 degree heat in the Russian Artic, convinces people that global warming is real and everyone stops driving? Oil to $12.50?
VIX: Question #4
The VIX index has settled down between 24 and 40 the past weeks. What is it telling us?
- All is good with the world, any questions call Chairman Powell!
- Ok 80 to 32 is an impressive drop, but shouldn’t we worry about 32?
- The new normal is 24 to 35 and that means we are not out of the woods yet in terms of volatility in asset prices.
- There are so many retail client will to pay for short term options, that the market wants them to pay up for them!
- VIX is irrelevant, equities only go up, yields only go down and the USD is boring.
Commodities: Question #5 who is right?
- Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude are up between 20% and 72% because we as a global economy are Back in Business!
- The prices of Gold, Silver are up for completely different reasons than Copper and WTI crude?
- Gold being up so much is a bad sign, the others being up is encouraging for growth?
- Which will be up the most from June 30th to December 31st?
Commodities: Question #6 Part II some seldom watched… ( True or False) 50/50 chance here readers…
- Lumber (orange line) is up 35% since Equity market lows, must be a good sign for growth in the U.S. True or False?
- Coffee down 21% is due to lack of customers at Starbucks? True or False?
- Wheat and Corn down 14% and 7% Blame it on China True or False. Will hurt Trump come election if prices not higher? True or False
- Natural Gas: No one understands that market except the meteorologists True or False ?
Final Question: thanks for reading this far if you have!
The USD is:
- Going to stay in the current range for the foreseeable future? True or False?
- The huge borrowings by the government, the unstable political situation, the lack of an interest rate differential and slowdown in re opening will cause the USD to fall:
- More than 5% before year end
- More than 10% before year end
- Won’t phase the greenback at all
- For the USD the only way is up, as every other major currency has it own problems!
|Ticker||Date Opened||Entry Price||Stop||Target Price||Current Price||% Change|
|LONG Austevoll Seafood ASA (AUSS:xosl)||2020/06/02||76.75||72.00||SPREAD TRADE||76.65||-0.13%|
|SHORT Leroy Seafood Group ASA (LSG:xosl)||2020/06/02||56.75||SPREAD TRADE||SPREAD TRADE||56.60||+0.26%|
|SHORT US500||2020/06/22||3095||3095 (WAS 3165)||2950||3037||+1.87%|
Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record!
2018: 45 Trades, Hit Ratio 53,66%, Profit +35,87 %
2019: 31 Trades, Hit Ratio 45,16%, Profit +26,97%
– Mark W