Many Moving Parts

While we await developments in the U.S./China trade as we approach the December 15th deadline, there are a lot of potential market affecting releases and events for traders to ponder this week. There is a sense in the market that the 15th may not be a hard deadline for an agreement on phase 1. The positive comments on a deal being done soon, seem to have tapered off and most likely the December 15th deadline will come and go, without the U.S. implementing the advertised tariffs. 

Politics:

              Iran: is struggling with political unrest, it is reported that a minimum of 180 people have been killed and the actual number may be higher.

              Angry protests are being handled with an iron fist by the government.

              NATO:  Although the Europeans have increased spending since 2016 by 130 billion USD, there seems to be a sense of uncertainty amongst

              the European leaders when it comes to where they have President Trump.  Macron of France has been vocal about President Trump.

              China and Turkey will be key issues, watch for disagreements on China technology.  (G5 Huawei)

              Impeachment action is gaining momentum in the U.S.

              Trade:  Both the USMCA and the China deals have hurdles, with the Hong Kong bill complicating the China agreement.  Smart money thinks

              that both bills will pass at some point, but more bumps in the road may make the market nervous.

Market releases:

Monday:

China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI   Forcast 51.1  Actual 51.8  positive for market as holding above 50 level

Europe:  Markit  Manufatcuring PMI  Forecast 46.6  Actual  46.9  also positive that there was an uptick from last month.

U.S.  Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  Forecast 49.1, Last 49.2  

U.S. construction Spending (Oct)  Forecast .2%  Last .5%

Tuesday:

Australia:  RBA rate decision, no change expected

Wednesday:

Australia:  GDP Growth Q3

France, Germany, Italy, Spain, EU, UK, U.S.  Markit Services PMIs

U.S:. ISM Non Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 53.4, Last 53.7

U.S: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change  Last 5.132M

Thursday:

U.S. Factory Orders  Forecast .5%, Last -0.6%

Friday:

Canada: Unemployment (Nov) 

U.S.:  Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average earnings

U.S. Michigan consumer Sentiment.

The political challenges combined with the large amount of data points, will give the market an update on whether the equity markets are justified

in ticking higher due to the low rates and large QE effort by the U.S., ECB and BOJ.  

Quick Views:

Gold:  Range of $1,450 to $1,465   Key levels $1,430 below and $1,480 on topside

USD Index:  98.00  and 98.50 short term key levels.  Longer Term focus on 99.00 on top, 97.40 below.

VIX:  12.80 key support, 14.80 resistance

OBX:  support 818, resistance 845

EURNOK:  10.17 resistance support 10.05

EURUSD:  support 1.0990  resistance 1.1065

VIX index resting on the lows as equities tick higher!

AUDJPY s bouncing towards the middle of the range and signals risk on is the theme of the past week.

Contact us if you are interested in receiving real time trading signals. In doubt? Check out our track record below!

TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price% Change
Long NOKIA2019/10/303.202.804.003.2540+1.69%

Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record!

– Mark W

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