Many Moving Parts
While we await developments in the U.S./China trade as we approach the December 15th deadline, there are a lot of potential market affecting releases and events for traders to ponder this week. There is a sense in the market that the 15th may not be a hard deadline for an agreement on phase 1. The positive comments on a deal being done soon, seem to have tapered off and most likely the December 15th deadline will come and go, without the U.S. implementing the advertised tariffs.
Iran: is struggling with political unrest, it is reported that a minimum of 180 people have been killed and the actual number may be higher.
Angry protests are being handled with an iron fist by the government.
NATO: Although the Europeans have increased spending since 2016 by 130 billion USD, there seems to be a sense of uncertainty amongst
the European leaders when it comes to where they have President Trump. Macron of France has been vocal about President Trump.
China and Turkey will be key issues, watch for disagreements on China technology. (G5 Huawei)
Impeachment action is gaining momentum in the U.S.
Trade: Both the USMCA and the China deals have hurdles, with the Hong Kong bill complicating the China agreement. Smart money thinks
that both bills will pass at some point, but more bumps in the road may make the market nervous.
China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI Forcast 51.1 Actual 51.8 positive for market as holding above 50 level
Europe: Markit Manufatcuring PMI Forecast 46.6 Actual 46.9 also positive that there was an uptick from last month.
U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Forecast 49.1, Last 49.2
U.S. construction Spending (Oct) Forecast .2% Last .5%
Australia: RBA rate decision, no change expected
Australia: GDP Growth Q3
France, Germany, Italy, Spain, EU, UK, U.S. Markit Services PMIs
U.S:. ISM Non Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.4, Last 53.7
U.S: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Last 5.132M
U.S. Factory Orders Forecast .5%, Last -0.6%
Canada: Unemployment (Nov)
U.S.: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average earnings
U.S. Michigan consumer Sentiment.
The political challenges combined with the large amount of data points, will give the market an update on whether the equity markets are justified
in ticking higher due to the low rates and large QE effort by the U.S., ECB and BOJ.
Gold: Range of $1,450 to $1,465 Key levels $1,430 below and $1,480 on topside
USD Index: 98.00 and 98.50 short term key levels. Longer Term focus on 99.00 on top, 97.40 below.
VIX: 12.80 key support, 14.80 resistance
OBX: support 818, resistance 845
EURNOK: 10.17 resistance support 10.05
EURUSD: support 1.0990 resistance 1.1065
AUDJPY s bouncing towards the middle of the range and signals risk on is the theme of the past week.
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