MTP Trade #14 2019
Sell EUR vs. NOK @ 9.7440
Target @ 9.5500
Stop @ 9.8100
Product type: FX Spot
Unemployment numbers came out in the U.S. and they were impressive.
Unemployment Rate: expected 3.8% Actual 3.6%
Payrolls: Expected 190,000 new jobs,, Actual 263,000 and in addition last month’s numbers were revised up by 6,000
This should put to rest the market thinking that the Fed will cut in the near future and we think supports our view of no change to possibly a hike before the end of 2019. We think that the Fed will wait until it sees weakness in the employment numbers combined with weakness in other key indicators before entertaining a cut in rates.
The US ISM manufacturing report came in weaker than expected and is worth watching, but we focus more on the service side of the economy for clues of slowing growth.
We like the rejection of the 9.80 level which was key for us and think we will see a retracement from this level.