One Year Later, Little Change!

When thinking about what to write today, I started thinking about everything that has happened in the markets the past year.

My main impression I had in my mind was:

The USD has strengthened a great deal the past 12 months (correct)

Gold and Silver are higher than 12 months ago (wrong)

Crude Oil is lower than 12 months ago (basically unchanged)

The global equity markets, in general, are lower than 12 months ago (basically unchanged)

My general view, before looking at the facts, also was that interest rates in the U.S. are higher (partially correct)

Interest rates for everywhere else were relatively unchanged compared to a year ago

The period from the end of February 2018 to now, was full of volatility, Stock markets setting new highs and a large correction, plenty of political uncertainty and important trade issues, followed by a rally in the first 2 months of 2019.

In reality:

                                            Feb 2018                           Feb 2019

USD Index                        90.50                                 96.50

DJIA                                   25,525                               26,000

NASDAQ                           7,400                                 7,500

ESTOXX 50                        3,070                                 3,040

S&P 500                            2,770                                 2,780

OMX Helsinki                   4,170                                 4,070

OSE All share                   917                                     985

Nikkei                                22,300                               21,500

Gold                                   1,365                                 1,330

Silver                                 16.75                                 16.10

Copper                              315                                     297

Crude Oil                          58                                       57

Nat Gas                             2.65                                   2.78

U.S. 2 year                        2.27%                                2.5%

U.S. 10 year                      2.89%                                2.67%

EURNOK                            9.70                                   9.74

For the most part the only significant change of the above, is the USD.  The story behind that is that the Fed has hiked rates which has given the currency support.

In addition to the Fed there has been significant repatriation of funds from overseas back to the U.S. by large corporations and the fact that for most of 2018 the U.S. equity markets outperformed the rest of the world.  Growth in the U.S. outperformed most major economies.

The commodity markets appear to be telling us that growth/demand is picking up again:

Copper, viewed as a good barometer for the overall strength of the global economy, showing signs of life as it has broken key resistance levels.

Platinum: used primarily in jewelry and autos, is 15 to 20 times rarer than gold based on mining production numbers. Has also broken resistance and looks to test higher.

We will look for a test of the earlier resistance levels to enter long positions, the question for our long gold position is will the above draw attention away in the short term?

Contact us if you are interested in receiving real time trading signals. In doubt? Check out our track record below!

TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price
Long XAUUSD19/021,333.001,315.001,365.001,328.80
Long XAUUSD21/021,323.001,315.001,365.001,328.80

Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record!

– Mark W

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