Q4 Is Upon Us!

As we enter the final quarter of 2019 we think it is important to focus on the potential trades and drivers that we see.

We will continue to focus on:

*Fed rate cuts, we think they will underperform compared to the market expectations.

              Fridays unemployment numbers will be of interest.

*U.S. China trade:  we think a some kind of a deal could well happen.

              We think it will be a disappointment for the market.

*Iran and the U.S. could easily flare up again.

              President Trump being torn in several directions, low poll numbers, impeachment distraction may inspire
              Iran, China and others to test the President’s focus.

*Strong performance by most asset classes the past 9 months.

              We think the positive performance will pause and we expect corrections to be the most likely scenario for Q4.

*Global growth is on the slide, All central banks globally are on alert.

              Good chance much of the good news is in the market pricing.

*Brexit outcome

              The whole process is pretty fascinating.

*Fixed Income yields

              Is the Japanese yields ticking higher a warning for other bond markets?

The below overview shows pretty impressive Year to Date returns:

Courtesy of Lorenzo Ippoliti

What we expect:

Gold: We are positive, could see test below $1,440.  Think $1,400 to $1420 is buy zone for longer term move.

Support short term at $1450  resistance at $1480 level.

USD index is at key resistance. Close above will open for a push higher!

Brent Crude testing lower end of range. Lower growth points to lower prices, but geopolitical turbulence is a clear possibility for higher prices.

High Yield looks wobbly to us. If it breaks the support line, we look for it to trade lower and think equity markets will follow.

We think the most likely outcome for U.S. stocks is a correction lower.

VIX index in the middle of the recent range.

Contact us if you are interested in receiving real time trading signals. In doubt? Check out our track record below!

TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price% Change
Long Mowi ASA2019/09/20210.50205.00218.00206.80-1.76%
Short DNB ASA2019/09/23162.90166.00150.00156.85+3.71%

Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record!

– Mark W

Share if you found it interesting!

Leave a Reply

2 + 4 =