Quiet Day

With both the UK and the U.S. markets closed today, we expect things to be quiet in the markets.

The EU elections were held yesterday and even though there were some interesting changes in the makeup of the parliament, in the end it appears that the centrist bloc lost their majority, while the Greens and the Liberals performance means that Pro-EU parties holds onto around 65% of the seats which is a positive for the future of Europe and the Euro in the short term.

The challenge going forward is the art of compromise will have to include the input of 4 groups of alliances.

In the Nordic area we have an interesting set of market inputs coming out:


Tuesday we get April foreign trade, retail sales, May NIER Business Tendency Survey

Q1 GDP is out Wednesday, we look for a stronger than expected report, which will help the SEK strengthen.  (consensus is .2%, 1.7% YoY)


Tuesday, we will get the oil investment survey

Wednesday: Retail sales

Friday: registered unemployment

If we get strong numbers from the above releases, this will give Norges Bank support for additional hikes after the June meeting.

EURSEK (blue) and EURNNOK (pink) both appear to be looking to test lower on the back of decent growth and in Norway the potential for higher rates.

Key technical levels:


              Support: 9.70, 9.66, 9.55

              Resistance: 9.7450, 9.81/9.82, 9.85


              Support: 10.6530, 10.60, 10.57

              Resistance:  10.7450, 10.80, 10,85

Gold, holding range of $1275 to $1300.

MSCI global stocks have broken below support and not managed to bounce, this week will be important to find support.

USD index is holding above key support at 97.35.

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