So What?

In a Grant’s article the following facts are presented:

  1. The U.S. Treasury department announced the fiscal budget came in at $984 billion for the year end September 30, 2019. Up 26% from the previous year.
  2. Federal debt held by the public, is $16.9 trillion or almost 80% of 12 month seasonally adjusted GDP, up from 77.5% on a year ago.
  3. Government deficits have expanded 4 years in a row.

This is all happening when things are going well, unemployment at record lows, equity markets at record highs, tame inflation and low interest rates.

Look for the House to pass an impeachment bill this week and send it to the Senate.  Seems to me that both sides want to wrap this up before the end of the year, so it doesn’t drag into the ramp up to the election in just over a years’ time.

It appears as though the Brexit extension to Jan 31st, the upcoming Fed interest rate cut combined with a pause and/or possible phase 1 trade agreement are all contributing to the positive risk on sentiment which is driving equity markets higher, bond yields higher and Gold/Crude lower.

Yesterday the S&P 500 hit new all time highs and is up over 21% on the year.

Asian equities are performing well and are at their highest levels in 3 months.

Gold is selling off testing the key $1480 level.

Brent crude tested $62 yesterday before trading lower.

I like that Uber on Monday rolled out their new Uber Money product.  I like the name the most!

The Norwegian kroner is true to its seasonally weak Q4 reputation this year as well, although a bit early.  We hit 10.30+ today, a new all-time weak level.  (seems like there are a lot of all-time levels going on)

We think there could be  a short term correction in the near future, but would wait to take anything other than small trading positions in long Nok positions.

Gold continues to consolidate and we would look to buy on dip to the 1,480 level.

We have been stopped out of our short Nasdaq and EU 50 index trades and impressed with sentiment in the global equity markets.  We watch at these levels.

Natural Gas is breaking up from its consolidation pattern, at the right time of the year. We look to buy on dips.

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– Mark W

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