Something, But Really Nothing!

A week ago as I was going on vacation I said two what seemed like very contradictory things to our clients:

  1. I expected little to happen in the market before we get into August and perhaps even September.
  2. Volatility almost always increases when I go on vacation! 

Here we are 1 week into my vacation and, believe it or not both statements were true this past week.

Dax Index was at 15,700 at the start of trading last Friday. Currently trading at 15,660. In the meantime we tested 15,000 level on Monday and have climbed higher ever since.

The Nasdaq Index was beat up on Friday and Monday, but has recovered impressively the past 4 days, as though nothing has happened at all!

The VIX Index was trading around the 18 level, rallied up to test 25 and has settled back to trade at 20. Thus confirming the increase in volatility event.

Even Brent Crude which was trading at $73.50 last Friday is back there now, after a voyage under $70.

USD Index on Monday was trading at 92.97 where it is now as well!

As anyone can tell you looking back is easy. Going forward it seems to me we are in store for more of the type of trading we have seen this week.

  1. The market is still underpinned by the major central banks and stimulus is still on offering.
  2. The delta variant and other possible similar viruses will potentially slow growth expectations from time to time.
  3. Companies will have troubles meeting the high expectations in terms of earnings as we head towards Q3/Q4, causing issues for some stocks.
  4. The inflation/growth concern focus will hit the markets on and off going forward.
  5. Can we stay at record equity highs and have 10 year yields at 1.29% with inflation above 5% yoy.
  6. Can the Fed /should the Fed wait until 2023 to start hiking.
  7. Will the decision by the Fed to start tapering, change the game or will the market take it in stride?

We are convinced that we will see moves in the weeks ahead that will be tradeable, that will force people to make decisions, but we are not sure anything will change in the big picture until we head into September.

Contact us if you are interested in receiving real time trading signals. In doubt? Check out our track record below!

TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price% Change
LONG Ocean Yield (OCY:xosl)2021/03/1930.2028.50 (27.00)40.0029.14-3.51%
LONG Saga Pure ASA (SAGA:xosl)2021/06/282.922.703.502.930+0.34%
LONG Aker ASA (AKER:xosl)2021/07/05673.00630.00825.00638.00-5.20%
LONG Copper (COPPERUSSEP21)2021/07/05434.00415.00490.00436.20+0.51%
LONG Norsk Hydro (NHY:xosl)2021/07/1557.2555.0064.0059.74+4.35%

Visit our Position Tracker to look at all of our realized trades and proven track record! 
2018: 45 Trades, Hit Ratio 53,66%, Profit +35,87 %
2019: 31 Trades, Hit Ratio 45,16%, Profit +26,97%
2020: 52 Trades, Hit Ratio 39,22%, Profit +69,27% 

– Mark W

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