Vacation Thoughts

Some market thoughts before vacation:

DAX: testing key level at 13,000, waiting on EU commission decision for next move.

S&P 500:  Past 6 weeks holding in 3,000 – 3,250 range.  Break above opens for test of gap at 3.350 level.

                   Break of 3,150 level opens for test of 2,980 and 2,950.

Gold: continues to hold the $1,790/$1,800 support, unable to break $1825 yet.

Brent Crude: trades $40 to $45.

EURUSD: 1,1200 – 1.1450 Range

NOK:  continues to strengthen, as long as risk on holds, look for this to continue

USD index:  testing key support at 95.80, we think it holds, but lower close may open for test of 95.00

Coffee: holding support at 98.35 level, looks poised to test higher in short term 101.85 and 104.80 key levels above.

Silver: impressive job of holding gains, we think that similar to Gold, has more work to do on upside. 

Copper:  300 key resistance, key support at 275.

Key developments to follow:

U.S./ global pandemic developments, think we see a dip in growth in early Q3 as well as in earnings Q3.

U.S./ Chinese relations:  A lot of saber rattling, perhaps show for President’s voter base, a slip up could be risk off quickly.

EU commission decision on Euro 750 billion facility:  Can Europe come to an agreement? if so positive for Euro/ Eurozone equities.

As we near end of July, support programs in the U.S. for unemployed, small business will start to run off, U.S. government will need to step up with more support.  Political issue!  If everything is getting better, why more money and increase deficits Dishing out more money is popular politics!

Keep an eye on:

iShares high yield USD ETF:  Was hit hard in March, has climbed back strongly.  Appears we are setting up for a breakout.

VIX index:  holding above key support for now.  Break of 24 will accompany higher equity markets. 

AUDJPY FX cross is telling us that all is well with the world, keep an eye open for this to change.

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TickerDate OpenedEntry PriceStopTarget PriceCurrent Price% Change
LONG Austevoll Seafood ASA (AUSS:xosl)2020/06/0276.7572.00SPREAD TRADE79.45+3.52%
SHORT Leroy Seafood Group ASA (LSG:xosl)2020/06/0256.75SPREAD TRADESPREAD TRADE54.40+4.14%

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2018: 45 Trades, Hit Ratio 53,66%, Profit +35,87 %
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– Mark W

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